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The If and When of Recovery (video)

It's worth taking a look at this recent Wall Street Journal interview with Real Estate expert John L. Burns.

Mr. Burns confirms a lot of what I've been predicting for months now for the 2010-2011 Atlanta real estate market.

In the video he explains why FHA loans and migth contribute to a prolonged recovery.

Here are a few reasons why 2010 will not be the year of recovery:

**We are likely to see what economists refer to as a ‘W’ shaped recovery…recent news and the surrounding economic environment supports us being in the first leg of the "W"… going up (only to come back down in 2010)

**FHA, with it's monstor growth (2% of the market in 2007 to over 23% right now), has become the new ’sub-prime’

**Without continued government intervention (tax credits, FED purchasing mortgage backed securities to keep interest...

The Market Is What The Market Does

There are a number of ways to analyze exisiting homes sales.  Today I'm looking at comparative monthly homes sales not "seasonally adjusted".

So what you're looking at here is a graph that shows monthly existing homes sales from 2005 to 2009.  And what you're seeing is that for the 5th straight month, sales are higher in 2009 vs. 2008.   And for 2 consecutive months now we've seen sales higher in 2009 vs. 2007.

existing-home-sales_480

Why the improvement?  It goes without saying many of these sales can be directly attributed to first time home buyers storming the market to take advantage of the $8000 tax credit.  Though now extended through April 30th 2010, the original deadline was November 30th.  The mad dash to beat the expiration...

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